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China's control over a variety of critical metals is a thorn in the side of the US

China's control over a variety of critical metals is a thorn in the side of the US

According to its constitution, the People's Republic of China is "under the democratic dictatorship of the people", but since 1949 authoritarian ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Economically speaking, China has been very dynamic for many years. Based on its reform and opening policy, China developed from 1978 into an economic and technological superpower. Since 2016, the World Bank has ranked the country with an income level in the upper midfield. Since 2010, China has been the country with the most extensive export of goods and the world's largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity since 2016. The annual economic growth between 2010 and 2017 averaged 6,7 percent.

China's control over a variety of critical metals is a thorn in the side of the US

The US government is stepping up its efforts to break China's dominance in supplying critical minerals to a number of modern areas of life, including electric vehicles (EVs), green technologies and military applications, by developing a plan to promote lithium, cobalt and rare earth mines globally.

The Energy Resource Governance Initiative (ERGI), announced in June, covers Australia, Botswana, Peru, Argentina, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, the Philippines and Zambia.

The program aims to promote the responsible exploitation of 15 minerals, which are expected to be in high demand as the advent of technologies such as electric vehicles, battery storage and wind turbines continues to increase.

"We want to ensure that these important mineral raw materials remain free from international coercion and control," said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at a meeting on Thursday at the United Nations General Assembly.

"The work that we are doing here is absolutely necessary - it is important to ensure a safe and reliable supply of raw materials to all nations," he emphasized.

Pompeo said that the Trump administration will also work on bilateral agreements, such as the one she recently signed with Canada to strengthen cooperation on critical minerals.

Washington has also received support from Australia, which has pledged to facilitate potential joint ventures to improve rare earth processing capacity and reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths.

At the beginning of September, Canberra 15, a US company, identified rare earth and critical minerals projects as part of its joint efforts with the US to attack China's dominant position in the market.

The announcement came after a move by the Australian Lynas Corp. (ASX: LYC), the world's largest rare earth mining company outside of China. In July, the company signed a contract with its Blue Line partner in Texas for the construction of a US heavy rare earth separation plant. The plant is scheduled to go into operation by 2021.

The US has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding to help Greenland explore and develop the island's resources, especially rare earths.

Washington has recently become increasingly worried about its dependency on commodity imports, as Beijing offered it as a lever in the trade war between the two largest economies in the world.

Growing superiority

China accounts for nearly 80% of the world's rare earth supply, a group of 17 chemical elements used in all areas from high-tech consumer electronics to military devices.

The dominance of China in the rare earths has been a political overlap in the past. It blocked exports to Japan following a naval dispute in 2010 year, although the resulting price increase triggered a race to secure supply elsewhere.

Beijing has also secured supplies of other critical minerals and battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel and has bought up mining investment in countries from Australia to South America and Greenland.

Der laut DERA study "Raw materials for future technologies 2016" 16 raw materials have a special relevance for 42 investigated future technologies. Demand is expected to rise sharply in the next two decades, especially for the metals lithium and rhenium as well as the heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium. According to the study, the investigated technologies will consume more than twice the present world production of these metals in the year 2035.

Demand Light rare earth metals for selected future technologies in t

Element

Technology

Need 2013

Need 2035

La

SOFC

10

80

Ce

SOFC

2

20

Nd

Automatic piloting of motor vehicles

0

16

Nd

Micro-Energy Harvesting

2,9

1.207

Nd

Solid state laser for industrial production

0,04

0,3

Nd / Pr

High-performance permanent magnets

28.900

62.400

Nd / Pr

requirements total

28.903

63.624

Nd / Pr

Need / Production 2013

79%

174%

La

requirements total

10

80

La

Need / Production 2013

0%

0%

Ce

requirements total

2

20

Ce

Need / Production 2013

0%

0%

Source: DERA

Demand Heavy rare earth metals for selected future technologies in t

Element

Technology

Need 2013

Need 2035

Y

Automatic piloting of motor vehicles

0

1.004

Y

SOFC

0,7

5

Y

Solid state laser for industrial production

15,1

43,8

Y

High temperature superconductors

0

0,9

Dy

Micro-Energy Harvesting

0,4

162,6

Dy / Tb

High-performance permanent magnets

2000

7.200

Y

requirements total

16

1.054

Y

Need / Production 2013

0,3%

19%

Dy / Tb

requirements total

2.000

7.363

Dy / Tb

Need / Production 2013

85%

313%

Source: DERA

In addition, the demand for germanium, cobalt, scandium, tantalum and the light rare earths neodymium and praseodymium in the year 2035 alone by the investigated future technologies will presumably be higher than the total production today (Fig. Right). Due to the uncertain market accessibility, the development of future technologies must be constantly monitored. For example, the scenario for lithium has already overtaken today. According to current forecasts, lithium demand is expected to double or even triple by the year 2025 (Schmidt 2017).

The supply of raw materials is becoming increasingly complex

Raw materials such as copper, nickel and cobalt, which can also be found in the deep sea, will experience a strong demand impulse as a result of the worldwide expansion of e-mobility. Cobalt and nickel are important components of Li-ion batteries, and the market will continue to grow strongly in the future as a result of the increasing electrification of mobility and the expansion of digitization. In the case of copper, it is expected that, in addition to e-mobility, the worldwide increase in electrification and the related network expansion will also generate a boost in demand. For example, an electric car contains four times as much copper as a car with an internal combustion engine. In addition, a further demand impulse could be generated by new energy-efficient technologies. Copper is the preferred material for these applications because of its excellent thermal and electrical conductivity.

ISE / Arndt Uhlendorff - September 2019

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