For e-cars, the music plays so far clearly in China. In no other country is the government pushing electro mobility so much through prohibitions on the one hand and subsidies on the other. An exception is certainly Norway. But the other European countries will soon take big steps in the direction of electromobility.

This is largely related to the upper limits for CO2 emissions. The average emissions of a fleet from next year can only be 95 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer. This equates to consumption of 4,1 liters (1,1 gallons) of gasoline or 3,6 liters of diesel (just under 1 gallons) per 100 kilometer. Exceeding this limit will result in billions of dollars in fines. Because every gram costs too much 95 Euro. With the current sales figures and emission values ​​come together quickly ten-digit amounts. Although the fines are only due from 2021, but most automakers still exceed miles then the allowed upper limits.

Of the 50 biggest car brands so far only Tesla and Toyota meet the specifications from Brussels. Tesla is the only major company that builds exclusively electric cars. And Toyota is a leader in plug-in hybrids, which, like Stromer, are favored when calculating fleet emissions. For the other manufacturers, it looks bleak - sometimes even raven black.

Because the car manufacturers are selling more and more of the popular, but fuel-guzzling SUVs. At the same time, sales of the controversial, but at least halfway CO2-poor diesel vehicles are falling. Their share of new registrations in the EU has recently declined from 36 to 31 percent. More and more SUVs and fewer and fewer cars with diesel engines mean that fleet output at various manufacturers has not dropped any more, but even increased again.

Miles far from upper limits

At the top, the average fleet output of car producers is up to two-thirds above the limit permitted from the coming or the year after next. According to calculations of the consulting agency Jato, today the carmakers would have to pay fines totaling 34 billions of euros. That corresponds approximately to their profit. It will be mainly manufacturers who sell a majority of their vehicles in Europe like the French producers. The German carmakers, however, make a large part of their business in the US and China. Above all, however, the People's Republic is focusing even more on the trend towards electromobility than Europe. There is virtually no escape.

In view of these financial risks, it is foreseeable that manufacturers in Europe will massively push ahead with the sale of Stromers or at least hybrid-powered cars in the coming months. It's not so much about beliefs, it's about money. This is even more important in view of the fact that the upper limits for CO2 emissions in Europe from 2020 to 2030 are reduced by a further 37,5 percent.

Lucrative earning potential

However, the caps on CO2 emissions should not only be seen by car companies as a risk, but also as an opportunity. Manufacturers such as Tesla or Toyota can form an emissions pool with other producers that exceed the thresholds, thus reducing the average CO2 fleet output, which can partially or even avoid impending penalties. Tesla already operates a similar business model in the USA.

In Europe, Tesla now wants to make common cause with Fiat-Chrysler in CO2 emissions. To this end, both companies have registered with the European Commission. Fiat Chrysler could thus possibly meet the upper limit from 2021 or at least not so seriously deviate from it. For Tesla, there are likely to be attractive payments. Comparable pools are also available between Toyota and Mazda and between PSA and Opel. However, this will hardly change the pace of electromobility.

 

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Source: IR-World.com