The US must grant the last 20 percent of the claims to China to sign a trade war agreement. This is what a leading Chinese expert says.
China M2 money supply vs. US money supply
Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, Beijing, said China had already approved 80 percent of an agreement in May.
Between 60 and 70 percent 'chance of Chinese President Xi Jinping and American counterpart Donald Trump reaching an agreement in November if the US can lower its demands.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US colleague Donald Trump could reach an agreement by the time they reach their next scheduled meeting in November, but only if Washington is able to drop the last 20 percent of American claims currently on the table which one can not agree with, as a leading Chinese expert said.
China has already accepted 80 percent of the trade agreement requirement, but the last part of Washington's claims is considered by Beijing to be a violation of its sovereignty, said Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, Beijing, on his social media account ,
Jin believes the chances are "between 60 and 70 percent" that China and the US can reach a trade deal if Xi and Trump are likely to meet at the summit of Asia-Pacific economic cooperation in Chile, but only if the US lower or even drop certain claims.
"It's not a one-hundred percent deal, and the negotiations may fail," Jin warned. "The main reason is that China has already offered to make big concessions."
China had already accepted around 80 percent of US demands before bilateral talks stalled in May, including "buying US goods, opening markets to US investors and improving policies in certain areas," said Jin.
Jin, who did not divulge the source of his information but is known to be well connected in Beijing, said the last 20 percent include completely abandoning the Made in China 2025 industrial policy program, a plan to reduce the state's stake of the overall economy from 38 percent to 20 percent and the implementation of a control mechanism that would enable the US to look into the books of the various levels of the Chinese government.
"The Politburo would never agree to these terms," Jin said, referring to China's top decision-making body. "It would be if we lost sovereignty and humiliated the nation."
"For the US, the choice is zero or 80 percent [of what they want]," Jin said. “The option to get 100 percent does not exist…. my conclusion is that the US must give up the last 20 percent [of its demands]. "
Led by Vice Premier Liu He, China's leading trade delegates are expected to fly to Washington early next month to open a new round of personal trade talks with their US counterparts led by trade representative Robert Lighthizer and finance minister Steven Mnuchin.
The US and China have already made significant tariff increases that took effect at the beginning of September, with further increases threatened for October and December. In particular, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has publicly urged the Trump administration to reverse the $ 1 billion tariff increase on Chinese imports planned for October 250. - the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China - to facilitate talks.
Trade imbalance between the United States and China
Politico said Friday that China made a proposal to buy a small amount of US agricultural commodities last week in its recent phone conversation with leading US retailers should Washington ease export restrictions on Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei and the tariff increase scheduled for early next month would move.
If both sides agree, it could lead to a “mini-deal” before the end of the year, speculated both US and Chinese experts at a conference in Beijing on Friday, according to Caixin magazine.
Beijing and Washington have both kept the details of all negotiations a secret, but last week the Chinese Commerce Department said communications between trade subordinates would be stepped up this month to lay the groundwork for "substantial progress" in the October talks. The United States Trade Representative's office also said that proxy-level meetings will be held in mid-September to pave the way for "meaningful progress".
On Friday, Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council of the White House, said the trade war with China may take a long time to resolve.
“The stakes are so high. We have to do it right. And if that takes a decade, so be it, ”he said.
Meanwhile, Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor, was quoted by Yahoo Finance when he said Friday that the US would stick to its original demands.
“We had a deal. We had a 150-page agreement that was in these seven industries that dealt with each of these issues and enforcement. There were 11 rounds of negotiations with commas and paragraphs. And that is the basis for further progress, ”Navarro was quoted as saying, referring to the preliminary text of the trade agreement from early May. “But the Chinese have distanced themselves from it. And in many ways, this deal will depend on what the Chinese are aiming for. "
In late July, the 12 took place in Shanghai. Round of personal talks between China and the US.
"A good international treaty should look like this: there will be complaints from both sides, but both sides will find it acceptable," said Jin. "If one side is very happy with a deal and wants to share it with the press while the other side is depressed, that type of deal would be just a piece of paper because the unfortunate side would certainly distance itself from it."
China south morning Post / ISE - September 2019
